2012年3月1日星期四

Government's choice

The government has already raised the rate of reserve 12 times by over 20% in recent two years(Financial Times China). Less lending and investment indeed decreased house prices, housing bubble seems being controlled and everything seems fine. But in fact, it is just a deadlock. Developers and investors are staying back and watching, waiting for a rebound signal.

The deadlock will not last long since it bring a new problem to Chinese government. Local governments have difficulty in paying their debts since less income from the land sales and taxes. There exist a trade off between preventing Chinese economy hard landing or house price adjustment.

Chinese government definitely choose the former although Chinese government announces that it will resolute in adjusting house prices. In recent weeks, rate of reserve ascended twice. Market absorbed the signal and boomed again, some property stocks like FanHai Construction, YinJi Develop, ZhongLiang Property reached the limit up.

It can be predicted that Chinese government will secretly relax the restrictions on house market and let the bubble grow again. The bubble will outburst someday in the future unless the government can do the followings:
Cut loans, especially cut loans for purchasing house; Monitoring the loans; Reduce the reliance on land sales and taxes; reduce the expenditure of local government; increase the costs of holding over one properties; get rid of monopoly and decrease taxes; crack down on corruption